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MAGNI (7087) : MAGNI-TECH INDUSTRIES BERHAD
garlic
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Posts: 109
Joined: Feb 2013
Male, MYS
04 Feb 2013, 11:28 PMPost #1
FA view

Year ROE ( > 10% )
2010 11.23%
2011 10.98%
2012 16.45%

PER range : 4.7 ~ 7.0

D/E = 0 ( zero borrowing ! :) )

Year NTA ( is improving silently ! )
2010 RM1.42
2011 RM1.52
2012 RM1.72

average dividend payout from EPS = 67%
10-year EPS growth rate = 10.6%
using desire return rate = 15%

the intrinsic is estimated to be at RM4.27

fair price A ( 33% of intrisic value) = RM2.86
fair price B ( 33% off between 52w high low ) = RM 1.38

TA - there should be a strong support at RM1.40 level ( triple bottom level)

Conclusion : strong buy !

cheongcy
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Posts: 18
Joined: Apr 2012
Male, MYS
05 Feb 2013, 01:42 PMPost #2
FA view

Year ROE ( > 10% )
2010 11.23%
2011 10.98%
2012 16.45%

PER range :...garlic @ 04 Feb 2013, 11:28 PM


Hi Garlic, how do you get to the intrinsic value of RM4.27?

Please advise. Thanks
garlic
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Posts: 109
Joined: Feb 2013
Male, MYS
05 Feb 2013, 05:39 PMPost #3
by estimating the future value of Magni-Tech using the average PER, EPS at 10-year using the current EPS growth rate + estimated cumulative dividend pay out for the next 10 year , the present value ( instric value ) can be derived using

R=ar^(n-1)
R = total return (expected price on n-year + total dividend)
a = intrinsic value
r = expected return rate
n = year n, n =10

the figure is estimation / projection, that is why always give a discount to it to eliminate any error in estimation. 33% discount should be safe
cheongcy
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Posts: 18
Joined: Apr 2012
Male, MYS
05 Feb 2013, 08:51 PMPost #4
by estimating the future value of Magni-Tech using the average PER, EPS at 10-year using the current...garlic @ 05 Feb 2013, 05:39 PM

Thanks. Do you know who is the major customers for magni.

Discovered this stock sometime ago, Berjaya is major shareholder. First 6 yrs of listed the company performance just so so. Following 6 yrs till now company is picking up.

Just wondering if Magni does supply to any branded like Nike, Adidas, etc...any idea?

Apparently current share price is undervalued.
garlic
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Posts: 109
Joined: Feb 2013
Male, MYS
06 Feb 2013, 11:26 AMPost #5


Thanks. Do you know who is the major customers for magni.

Discovered this stock some...cheongcy @ 05 Feb 2013, 08:51 PM


Yes, I'm aware that Berjaya Group is one of the major shareholder.

They were supplying to Nike & Columbia Sportswear. Try a link over here http://www.cottonusasupplychain.com/member-mills?millid=258

I was introduced by someone to the above link as well :)
cheongcy
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Posts: 18
Joined: Apr 2012
Male, MYS
06 Feb 2013, 02:24 PMPost #6


Yes, I'm aware that Berjaya Group is one of the major shareholder.

They were supplyin...garlic @ 06 Feb 2013, 11:26 AM


Thanks for the info. So how do you thunk about the future prospect for magni?
garlic
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Posts: 109
Joined: Feb 2013
Male, MYS
07 Feb 2013, 11:57 AMPost #7


Thanks for the info. So how do you thunk about the future prospect for magni?cheongcy @ 06 Feb 2013, 02:24 PM


should be doing fine, Malaysia still not a competitive environment for garment manufacturers. should be able to last few years.

current valuation very attractive for this counter.
garlic
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Posts: 109
Joined: Feb 2013
Male, MYS
20 Feb 2013, 05:41 PMPost #8
Director : Tan Sri Dato' Seri Tan Kok Ping

The Company has, on 18 February 2013 received the notification from a Director of Magni that he intend to deal in the securities of Magni between 20 February 2013 up to 15 March 2013 during Magni’s closed period.

Intention to deal can be either accumulate or dispose.
garlic
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Posts: 109
Joined: Feb 2013
Male, MYS
11 Mar 2013, 08:34 AMPost #9
still waiting patiently for my durian to fall :), see who got the patient, kikikikikiki
garlic
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Posts: 109
Joined: Feb 2013
Male, MYS
12 Mar 2013, 10:31 PMPost #10
thumbup, collecting my 5 cent dividend by end of April 2013, going ex on 26/3/2013 yeah

warning,for those investor without patient & cannot tolerate poor liquidity, not a good choice for you guys :)

garlic just love poor liquidity stock thumbup
ILoveDividend
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Posts: 519
Joined: Dec 2011
Male, MYS
13 Mar 2013, 10:51 AMPost #11
...garlic @ 12 Mar 2013, 10:31 PM

So do i... I like poor liquidity stock too. smile
However, below are the magni's disadvantages:
1) Directors's fee is too high
2) Low profit margin but it is improving for pass few years but still below 10%
3) BJCORP is the major shareholder, a bit scare. shutup
garlic
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Posts: 109
Joined: Feb 2013
Male, MYS
13 Mar 2013, 11:36 AMPost #12


So do i... I like poor liquidity stock too. ...ILoveDividend @ 13 Mar 2013, 10:51 AM


1) Well, can agree as set back. walao le, even director fees you also compare ?
2) Most importantly, you also acknowledge it is improving, so should not be a set back anymoresmile
3) It is a negative perception to certain investors i believe, see how garlic go against this perception, kikikikiki
cheongcy
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Posts: 18
Joined: Apr 2012
Male, MYS
13 Mar 2013, 01:02 PMPost #13


So do i... I like poor liquidity stock too. ...ILoveDividend @ 13 Mar 2013, 10:51 AM


Hi Garlic,

Also,i don't really put much concern about the stock liquidity itself..

I believe before we invest in any company, we have to know the intrinsic value of the company itself, not at the exact figure, but a general conclusion that a company is cheap...

Until now i still believe that undervalued company will back to its fair value after some time, of course we do not when.

3 years in stock market, so far i have seen the not so popular stock like KSENG, ORIENT, RCI, etc back to its fair value.

I believe everytime when we buy a stock, we should ask ourselves...If i gonna buy the whole company, is this a fair price for the company to sell to me.

Here I take Plenitude as example, it has 1600 ~ 1700acres of land bank, largely are freehold and acquired at least 10yrs ago. Its NTA is RM3.31 per share, with net cash of ard RM1.25 per share. Current share price only selling at damn cheap price of RM1.91. If someone going to fully buy over the whole company, i do not think Plenitude will sell it less than RM3.31....And i believe this is value investing.

garlic
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Posts: 109
Joined: Feb 2013
Male, MYS
14 Mar 2013, 08:33 AMPost #14


Hi Garlic,

Also,i don't really put much concern about the stock liquidity itself..cheongcy @ 13 Mar 2013, 01:02 PM


garlic starts to admire cheongcy way of investing thumbup

Vinz
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Posts: 15
Joined: Jul 2012
Male, MYS
15 Mar 2013, 11:24 PMPost #15


Hi Garlic,

Also,i don't really put much concern about the stock liquidity itself..cheongcy @ 13 Mar 2013, 01:02 PM

Hi Cheongcy,

May I know how to count the intrinsic value of a company?

I also agree with your way of investment.
cheongcy
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Posts: 18
Joined: Apr 2012
Male, MYS
17 Mar 2013, 01:19 PMPost #16

Hi Cheongcy,

May I know how to count the intrinsic value of a company?

I also agre...Vinz @ 15 Mar 2013, 11:24 PM


I think we cannot calculate the intrinsic value of a company with exact figure. The fair value of a company should fall in a range of price.

Say Zhulian for example, its selling price was RM0.98 in 2009. Its EPS was RM0.20++ and DPS was RM0.12. The company encounter no debt and it has quite a good growth years after years. If such company deserves a PE of 10 ~ 13, its fair value should be RM2.00 ~ RM2.60.

Again take Plenitude as example, as mentioned on previous post. If someone willing to take over the whole company, do you think Plenitude will simply sell it with current market value of RM1.91/share despite its NTA is RM3.31? (The company still hasn't lost its earning power.)

Back to Magni, if there is sound evidence that the company continue doing good, it deserves value no less than its NTA.



garlic
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Posts: 109
Joined: Feb 2013
Male, MYS
18 Mar 2013, 10:27 AMPost #17
solid like a steel currently. we see how much it can dive during the panic when GE13 is called. my prediction - limited downside from here :)
cheongcy
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Posts: 18
Joined: Apr 2012
Male, MYS
18 Mar 2013, 11:09 AMPost #18
solid like a steel currently. we see how much it can dive during the panic when GE13 is called. my p...garlic @ 18 Mar 2013, 10:27 AM

I personally don't take the GE13 as a major concern. I hear everywhere people keep talking about waiting for adjustment when GE13 announced, how true is the adjustment will happen?

Second of all, if majority have similar thinking to wait for GE13 adjustment, meaning to say no one is buying stock now. If nobody buying at the moment, who is selling when GE13 arrives? I believe the GE13 effect already reflected in the current market.

So, my view is just keep buying whenever company is cheap. Hold for long term, ignore the short term effect....Well, i might be wrong too....


garlic
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Posts: 109
Joined: Feb 2013
Male, MYS
18 Mar 2013, 02:26 PMPost #19


I personally don't take the GE13 as a major concern. I hear everywhere people keep talking a...cheongcy @ 18 Mar 2013, 11:09 AM


not all investors have attained the confident of your level in stock market :)


cheongcy
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Posts: 18
Joined: Apr 2012
Male, MYS
18 Mar 2013, 05:00 PMPost #20


not all investors have attained the confident of your level in stock market :)


garlic @ 18 Mar 2013, 02:26 PM


I think I am just a typical stubborn head lol..

But I believe if we found a good company with cheap price, we need some faith to hold it long.

yeah doh drool lol mad notworthy question rant rolleyes sad shutup shy smile star sweat thumbup wub cry


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