Shell 4324 蚬壳@飞上枝头变风凰了。

大马蚬壳末季净利飙升115%

By Anette Appaduray / theedgemarkets.com   | February 28, 2017 


（吉隆坡28日讯）大马蚬壳（Shell Refining Company (Federation of Malaya) Bhd）第四季净利飙升115%，主要因为原油和其他产品价格逐步回升。

截至去年12月杪末季净利升至2亿780万令吉，上财年同期为9650万令吉；营业额从23亿6000万令吉，增7.4%至25亿3000万令吉。

蚬壳指出，全年净利跌4.7%至3亿3530万令吉，2015财年为3亿5180万令吉，因盈利赚幅被更高的折旧成本所抵销。

2016财年营业额由90亿8000万令吉，跌7.9%至83亿7000万令吉，主要是产品价格受市场驱动走低。

展望未来，该集团表示，炼油赚幅依旧不确定。

“营运效率、产品质量和财务风险管理将继续是公司2017财年最大化赚幅的关键重点。”

闭市时，蚬壳上涨59仙或18.27%，收报3.82令吉，市值达11亿3000万令吉。

@

--位于波德申的炼油厂每日生产156,000桶，壳牌是马来西亚领先的零售燃料和润滑油供应      商，它在下游业务具竞争力。

--中国山东恒源石油集团接管波德申蚬壳炼油厂后，投入资源提升炼油设备来满足市场需求，这该是同业者重振雄风的时刻。

--Malikai深海油田2017年可投產，並在未來25年合約期內帶來貢獻。Malikai深海油田每年產量峰值將達到日產6萬桶石油及大約140萬立方米的天然氣，蜆殼（經營者）持有合約35%權益。

--国际油价回升至56美元，下半年估计可至65美元,会提升ＳＲＣ的赚副，因此公司下来将恢复净利。

--公司于31-12-2016 的库存有8,25亿零吉, 债务为14亿.
 现金有3,55亿, 累计净利有7,1亿
--Shell @守久丰衣足食，现油价己呈净利，当油价到65元或更高时，净利更佳，中资为公司強大后盾，
提供技术与资金，中方与我国关系密切，中国势力的提升，一帶一路，看好这公司的前景，未耒重回8元以上也不足为奇。

-http://www.shell.com.my/
 

http://www.hyshjt.com/

---个人观点：2016 Eps=117 sen,pe=5,stock price=rm5.85

只供参考,投资自负.

niu

A New Investment Lesson:

Yesterday the price went up by 59 sen and today it went up by 15 sen. I cannot see any big seller. I should not be afraid to buy more Hengyuan even when I see big institutional investors selling. In fact, I have been buying at higher prices in the last 2 days.   

My Common-Sense Guideline:

I should have followed my common-sense guideline which is to buy at PE ratio below 10. Its first half year EPS was Rm 1.21. Even if the company did not make any additional profit for the 2nd half year, its PE is still below 10.

Mr Ooi Teik Bee has classified Hengyuan a Miss Universe stock and he expects Hengyuan’s 3rd quarter EPS to be more than RM 1.00. We will be able to see this fantastic result before the end of the month.

I will continue to buy Hengyuan until I have exhausted all my funds. I believe it will continue its uptrend.

At what PE ratio would you rate Hengyuan?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/137513.jsp 

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Insight1/137875.jsp

Exactly 3 months ago, I had written an article to predict Hengyuan’s Q2 EPS, refer below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Insight1/129795.jsp

The actual reported earning was somewhat close, though the basis used to predict did not exactly tally with some information mentioned in HY Q2 financial report. Thus, I had made an amendment to my current derivation on Q3 EPS accordingly. The change is purely on the inventory valuation where according to my judgement they are hedging about 50% of its value. This way, my estimation would be way more conservative too as I am basically reducing the gains by half for Q3.

I am writing this article again to continuously educate i3 member to have an idea of how the refinery business works, so that they can appreciate HY's full potential valuation, while not getting spooked (deterred) by its short-term volatility by simply patiently seeing the inventory effects on longer-term (6 months). This way perhaps we could have avoided the dip on price we saw after Q2 results on 28 August where 11 Million  shares changed hand from poorly informed investors to the intelligent ones.

This article on its EPS prediction is something the writer does for fun and as such do not place in all your eggs on these baskets (or remove, or transfer your eggs) simply because the article suggests so – always use your own judgements.

Now let the fun part of numbers begin..

For any refinery, there are two independent factors that contribute to its quarterly earnings, one is the Refining Margin (1) and the other is the Inventory gain/loss (2) due to crude oil price changes between the reporting period.

Earnings factor (1): the refining margin

This is called the profit due to CCS Margin.

(A) CCS Profit = Refining Throughput, T (Barrels/day) x No. of days in operation (Days) x Refining CCS Margin (USD/Brl) x Exchange rate (RM/USD)

Using a realistic estimate of the expected Q3 average refining margin of 10USD/brl, HRC CCS profit is as per below:

= 112k bpd x 90 days x 10 USD/brl x 4.2 RM/USD

= 423 M

One can refer to the below chart on the 10USD/brl justifcation:

Note that, I am unable to show the crack spread for Gasoil (Diesel) which combined with Gasoline (Petrol) yields more than 95% of  HY refined products, however the 10USD/brl average I am using is rather conservative considering some of the peak in crack spread caused by Hurricane Harvey and consistently higher than 11USD/brl crack spread on certain months during this qtr for Diesel.

Earnings factor (2): Inventory gain / loss,

This is simply the valuation of their Inventory (consisting of both product and feed crude) as per the market valuation at end of the reporting period.

The oil price used by the company during the reporting period is quite dependent on the date they chose as a reference, we may only use the Brent closing price on the last week of the month as an approximate indicator.

As such taking a conservative approach, I estimate that Brent price of ~ 56 USD/brl to represent ending value for Sept17 and 47 USD/brl to represent starting value as of end June17. The difference is 9 USD/brl.

Due to 50% hedging on its inventory assumption, we only consider 50% of the inventory affected by the Brent  price change. Thus, 4700 barrels inventory (used originally as per my article 3 months ago) is now reduced by half to 2350 barrels.

(B)  The inventory Gain = Ending Value of inventory (Sept 17) – Starting Value of Inventory (Jun 17)

Starting Value of Inventory (June17) = Inventory (barrels) x Starting Price of Brent (USD/barrel)

= 2350k barrels x USD 47/brl

= 110M

Ending Value of Inventory (Sept17) = Inventory (barrels) x Ending Price of Brent (USD/barrel)

= 2350k barrels x USD 56/brl

= 131M

Thus, the inventory gain is

= 131M – 110M

= 21M USD

= 88M RM

The Total Effect, Is the FIFO profit which will be the reported Gross profit is simply the addition of the CCS Profit with Inventory gain/loss.

Refineries divide the FIFO profit by the barrels processed to obtain FIFO refining margins.

Thus, the FIFO Profit (GROSS PROFIT):

= CCS Profit + Stock gain/loss

= 423M + 88 M

= 511 M

Taking Hengyuan's  Sales & Admin overhead costs, Other expenses and Finance costs which comes to approximately 120M, the Net profit would be:

= 511M – 120M

= 391 M (this results with a staggering EPS of 130 cents for Q3 2017 for HENGYUAN assuming no tax as per previous qtr).

Unlike HY, for PETRONM, i am unable to find a good derivation method for my prediction. I had based on the exclusion method presented on the Table below (which is self-explanatory using some basis on Bataan refinery shutdown conservatively).

The table basically expresses the fact that in all-likelihood PetronM is unlikely to deliver a spectacular EPS inline with Hengyuan (say exceeding 50 cents) as some may be expecting (market expectations).  However, its current price of ~ RM 13 is still cheap for a recurring quarterly EPS of 30 cents. This is probably due to interruption on PetronM supplies (outsourcing) caused by the shutdown of Bataan refinery which had carried over to Q3.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Insight1/137875.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/davidtslim/137066.jsp

SC SHOULD SUSPEND & FIND MILLION$ TO {RHB} IB GIVING FALSE INFO . PLEASE SECURITY WATCHDOG TAKE ACTION ON THEM!!!!!

Actually this is nice stock currently only PE4, compare with petM is PE7. Somehow still can listen people saying, wait decreased back less than Rm8. What the hell... Please read more. By following quater it increasing or maintain(But the end still depand to our GOV by time to time). If argue with those people, than it decreasing our IQ and EQ.

http://kongsenger.blogspot.my/2018/03/hengyuan-4324-rm-923.html

http://kongsenger.blogspot.my/2018/04/hengyuan-4324.html

恆远 hengyuan 4324 買吧，丰衣足食。

This company is going down signal 

恒源炼油（HENGYUAN，4324，主板能源股）日线交投走势，于2月21日闭市时收6.10令吉，按日涨44仙或7.77%，短期上升阻力或会处于6.11至6.54令吉水平。

21/2/19行情

闭市：6.10令吉

起落：+44仙

成交量：32,306宗

最高：6.10令吉

最低：5.66令吉

本益比：2.013倍

毛周息率：0.328%

52周最高：15.38令吉

52周最低：4.51令吉

Oil price drop , and this share might rise .

Oil price drop , and this share might rise .