To date ROE of BAT is still maintained at 165% and DY=8.69% which are relatively good signs of strength of BAT. But the share price of RM 60.00 when I firs bought about two years ago and now at around RM33.00 pershare is rather stressing to me.However I am somewhat pleased to know that my real loss in the share price is to a large extent offset by the 4 times in a year payments of dividends. I hope that the company wiill battle with the Govt. to urge it to curb the illegal sales of cigarettes and restore the com[any.

Any comments from share holders and company appreciated.. A.David -share holder.  

I bought average 26.20...

Still can hold for dividend...If BAT can pay rm1.69 per year...

I bought BAT at around M 60.00 2 years ago. It pays dividend at around 6.0 % pa the near the highest in Bursa. I am happy that because of the good dividends paid I am able to offset my high buying price. Is there any chance of BAT paying any bonus in the near future? This would then bring down my high buying price.  

FY18 CNP of RM468.5m (-7%) and total dividends of 155.0 sen were as expected. Illicit market share remains at unprecedented levels, registering at 64% in 4Q18. Lower total industry indicates an overall reduction in consumption, from stricter enforcement on illegal products and affordability of legal offerings. Alternative products may be in the works, but these are serving as a long-term endeavour. Maintain UP but raise our TP of RM32.65 (from RM29.10) on higher valuations.

Cumulative FY18 earnings within expectations. British American Tobacco (M) Bhd’s (BAT) 4QFY18 normalised net profit - after stripping out one-off GST benefit and refund on tax stamps and 2017 provision for impairment of prepaid excise duties; came in at RM81.4m. This lead to FY18 normalised earnings of RM433.6m, which is within ours and consensus’ full-year FY18 earnings estimates at 99% and 97% respectively. Comparing against 4QFY17, revenue grew by +12.5%yoy to RM770.6m whilst the respective normalised earnings grew marginally by <1.0% on a year-over-year basis. On a quarterly sequential basis, revenue staged an encouraging improvement of +4.8%yoy despite the contraction in earnings. Volume sold also improved by +2.2% in the fourth quarter largely due to seasonality and speculation prior to pricing.

Illicit cigarettes market remains stagnant at 64%. The dip in BAT’s FY18 overall revenue and, thus, earnings year-over-year was mainly attributable to the lower domestic and duty-free volumes which slumped by -5.8%yoy. The lower domestic volume was mainly impacted by the legal market volume which contracted by -3.5%yoy in comparison to 4QFY17. Additionally, the illicit cigarettes volume share remains stagnant at a record high of 64% since 1QFY18 which consists of smuggled cigarettes at 60% and quasi legal cigarettes with fake tax stamps at 4%. This, in return, has impacted the group’s volume, translating to a decline by -4.6%yoy in terms of the group’s overall volume sold.

Declared 47sen dividend for 4QFY18. BAT declared a fourth interim dividend of 47sen per share for 4QFY18. This is as opposed to 43sen declared during the same period last year. YTD dividend declared for FY18 of 155sen is within our dividend forecast of 149sen for the year which represents a full-year payout ratio of 94%. As such, we are maintaining our dividend forecasts at this juncture.

Earnings estimates maintained. We are maintaining our F19F earnings forecasts at this juncture. That said, we have factored in conservative assumptions in our earnings forecasts previously such as: (i) gradual recovery in sales due to high illicit cigarette trade; (ii) continued weak consumer spending power as well as; (iii) growth in lower price segment (VFM) within the legal market.

Maintain BUY. We are maintaining our BUY recommendation on BAT with a revised target price of RM39.50

(previously RM37.70) as we roll forward our valuation base year to FY20. Our valuation is derived from a dividend discount model valuation with a cost of equity of 6.5% and a long term expected dividend growth rate of 1.25%. We opine that while business environment will continue to remain challenging for BAT. However, we are comforted by the fact that BAT’s VFM brand Rothmans in 4Q17 remains the fastest growing brand which we opine will assist in sustaining its position as a market leader in the legal cigarettes’ domain. Additionally, the revenue and volume contraction has narrowed to low single digit from low double digits earlier this year and previous FY. This narrowing contraction which is mainly attributable to BAT’s ongoing cost rationalisation initiatives has translated to the recovery in BAT’s earnings and profit margin over the past few quarters. We understand from the Management that, this will be an ongoing process to cushion the effect of the decline in legal cigarette volume. As the share price of BAT has taken a beating last year due to the announcement of an increase in tobacco-related items tax and price, we opine that all the negatives have been priced; share price has bottomed out and; current price presents a good opportunity for accumulation of the stock. Aside from the recovery in earnings, its dividend yield remains attractive at 4.9% FY20F.

What a loss for BAT share price. Many investors affected. I bought about three years ago at RM 60.00 per share. What consoles me is that the divididend but this too has come dowm.For BAT Malaysia to make more profits, there is just one way the new Govt.must pursue a more aggressive positive action to arrest the illegal cigarette sale. Mahathir must take a more strict policy to arrest the illegal sale of cigarette on Malays since they are the ones who smoke heavily from young. Investor.

You may say such things, but I can rest assure you that it was happened in fact cause of something really really like vaping and that's really it. So do not invest in that tobacco companies, you will loose in the end, they may go broke even soon.

If a business's products or services are a harm to the majority of citizens in a country, then by common sense, the government will listen to the voices of the citizens complaints to control, if not to illegalize the business.  The Pre war and Colonial government era opium trades was an example.  

BAT (4162) -Technical Analysis

November 7, 2019 | HONG WEI GIET

Technical Analysis

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- BAT shares prices decrease by around 50% from RM35.41 to RM17.60. A failing angel.- BAT EPS 2019 has confirmed cant beat and/or match last year EPS 2018 (164.2 cents) and revenue recorded lower low due to serious penetration of illegal cigarette sales.- Since Sept 06, 2019, we noticed that there are buying force enter markets to support BAT shares price and

More: https://www.fundamental-technical-analysis.com/

It look very likely to reach 10 soon

Gameover !

Game Over? This company has excellent records and robust management team to overvome the challenges.

Best dividend stock analysis for 2020:

https://malaysiainvestment88.blogspot.com/2020/02/klse-best-dividend-stock-for-2020.html

last calling ,moving up steadily ,25 within a month,45 is next,buy back quickly if you had disposed 

Last call miss this boat you will regret,it’s lifetime low,one big timers return you will not able to get this cheap sell price 

My father works inside the legal industry and got inside new. Total legal industry volume shrank 10% from the previous year due to high level of illegal cigarette incidence. Not wise to invest in BAT in my opinion!

Today Bat open 15 moving on to touch 15.60 before profits setting in and close at15.10

Illicit market doubled up since the surge (33.5% in 2015 vs. 63% in 2019) 

Long term wise, not including the recent political outburst? Nay..

The removal of BAT indiex and inclusion of Carlsberg is already severe enough. With the taxation loss, for sure stock investors are being fleeced by syndicates