#HEIM Updates – 7 Apr 2017 (http://wp.me/p17Hxk-2FV)

There is one slight issue in my analysis file, but the issue doesn’t impact valuation very much. In its Cash Flow Statement, you can easily spot one item called “Amortisation of prepaid contractual promotion expenses”. Unfortunately, HEIM didn’t disclose how they allocate “prepaid contractual promotion expenses for promotional activities“, and how they amortised the expenses based on the volume purchased. Thus, there is no way for me to make projection. Although the figures were quite large, it didn’t impact valuation significantly.

目标价：25.50令吉最新进展

喜力大马（HEIM，3255，主板消费股）截至去年底末季净利，按年增6.8%至9999万7000令吉，每股派息54仙。

末季营业额从5亿8996万4000令吉，年增12.3%，至6亿6228万1000令吉。

累积全年，净利按年增4.6%至2亿8252万2000令吉；营业额则年增8.3%，报20亿2967万2000令吉。 

行家建议

喜力大马最新业绩在我们和市场的预测范围内，全年累积派息共达每股94仙，股息派发率高达101%。

我们预料该公司通过推介创新产品和行销活动刺激消费者支出，以保障其市场份额。

除了配合营销策略和优质产品组合，我们认为更有效地去打击私酒，更能提振公司营业额。

另外，生产效率提升和更有效的营销支出，减缓了原料和包装成本上涨的利空，让该公司净赚幅维持在13.9%，因此，我们分别上调今明财年的盈利1%和2%。

根据股息贴现估值（DDM），顺应上调目标价，从19.60令吉升至25.50令吉，评级从“中和”提高至“买入”。 

此外，我们认为能对公司造成风险的因素，包括意外上调的国产税、及私酒的市占率走高。

Day 43 of Fundamental Daily, YAPSS will be covering Heineken Malaysia Berhad's fundamental via a short animated video. I hope it helps and please enjoy the video, see ya! #YAPSS #FundamentalDaily #HeinekenMalaysiaBerhad

Click the on the link to find out more: https://youtu.be/WBVIj1Hd55o

Visit mykayaplus for latest 2018 Heineken Malaysia Bhd analysis.

https://www.mykayaplus.com/heim-bhd/

YAPSS Quick Summary and Free 10 Years Financial Data of Heineken Malaysia Berhad:

https://www.yapss.com/post/heineken-malaysia-berhad-heim-3255

Heineken Malaysia – you have missed the boat

Since the pandemic, Heineken Malaysia has improved its performance, with ROA rising to 27% (2023/24) from 16% (2020/21). However, this growth has been driven by topline expansion rather than margin improvements. Revenue is 45% higher, but gross profit margins declined from 29% to 27% comparing the 2 periods.

With a 3.8% CAGR from 2019 to 2024, Heineken’s growth mirrors Malaysia’s long-term GDP rate. If this continues while maintaining current margins and costs, profits should grow steadily. However, there are signs of improving efficiency, as operating profits and ROA have increased, indicating better cost management and asset utilization.

From a fundamental perspective, Heineken remains a strong performer, reflected in its position on the Fundamental Mapper. However, from a value investing standpoint, the stock is trading at 17x PE and only 8% below its five-year high, suggesting limited margin of safety.

Unless there are expectations for significant growth beyond GDP or better margin improvements, value investors may have missed the boat at this price.