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Market Date: 24 May 2019

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* Calculated based on the net profit of the trailing twelve months and latest number of shares issued.

DateFinancial
Year
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Revenue
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PBT (RM,000)Net Profit
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23 May 201931 Dec 2019131 Mar 2019485,617-3,376-7,058-1.000.002.780 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
20 Feb 201931 Dec 2018431 Dec 2018531,127492-10,388-1.480.002.790 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
21 Nov 201831 Dec 2018330 Sep 2018562,05419,18115,8762.260.002.810 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
24 Aug 201831 Dec 2018230 Jun 2018573,22320,09514,3302.040.002.790 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
23 May 201831 Dec 2018131 Mar 2018549,06120,94415,8062.250.002.770 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
21 Feb 201831 Dec 2017431 Dec 2017656,12127,03613,0821.860.002.750 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
22 Nov 201731 Dec 2017330 Sep 2017668,51525,31210,4161.480.002.730 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
29 Aug 201731 Dec 2017230 Jun 2017692,458-28,593-21,450-3.050.002.710 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
31 May 201731 Dec 2017131 Mar 2017648,971-39,562-34,622-4.930.002.780 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
22 Feb 201731 Dec 2016431 Dec 2016838,30824,13314,3942.050.002.830 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
21 Nov 201631 Dec 2016330 Sep 2016633,12232,75023,3053.320.002.910 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
23 Aug 201631 Dec 2016230 Jun 2016633,85631,07723,6793.370.002.870 Malaysia Stock - KLSE Quarter Report History
123

DateFinancial
Year
Ex-DateEntitlement
Date
Payment
Date
Entitlement TypeDividend
(Cent)
Dividend
(%)
Details
19 Apr 201731 Dec 201625 May 201729 May 201713 Jun 2017Final Dividend4.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend
21 Nov 201631 Dec 201602 Dec 201606 Dec 201630 Dec 2016First Interim Dividend10.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend
15 Apr 201631 Dec 201525 May 201627 May 201610 Jun 2016Final Dividend14.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend
26 Nov 201531 Dec 201508 Dec 201510 Dec 201529 Dec 2015First Interim Dividend12.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend
08 May 201531 Dec 201416 Jun 201518 Jun 201502 Jul 2015Final Dividend14.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend
20 Aug 201431 Dec 201403 Sep 201405 Sep 201419 Sep 2014First Interim Dividend10.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend
19 May 201431 Dec 201325 Jun 201427 Jun 201411 Jul 2014Final Dividend14.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend
14 Nov 201331 Dec 201311 Dec 201313 Dec 201327 Dec 2013First Interim Dividend10.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend
20 May 201331 Dec 201212 Jun 201314 Jun 201328 Jun 2013Final Dividend11.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend
26 Nov 201231 Dec 201212 Dec 201214 Dec 201228 Dec 2012First Interim Dividend8.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend
14 Jun 201231 Dec 201127 Jun 201229 Jun 201212 Jul 2012Final Dividend11.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend
25 Nov 201131 Dec 201109 Dec 201113 Dec 201128 Dec 2011First Interim Dividend8.00000.00 Malaysia Stock -  Dividend

MSM (5202) : MSM MALAYSIA HOLDINGS BERHAD
TeckLau
Member Star
Posts: 15
Joined: Jan 2012
Male, MYS
05 Mar 2012, 09:51 AMPost #1
doh
Mark Tse
Member Star
Posts: 16
Joined: Dec 2018
Male, MYS
22 Feb 2019, 11:31 AMPost #2

目标价:2.23令吉最新进展

大马糖厂(MSM,5202,主要板消费股)截至去年12月底的末季,按年由盈转亏,蒙受1038万8000令吉的净亏,相等每股1.48仙。

当季营业额从6亿3556万3000令吉,按年跌16.43%,至5亿3112万7000令吉。

由于销售量下跌3%,加上平均销售价走低,冲击营业额表现,且融资成本也提高,最终导致亏损。

行家建议

归咎盈利疲弱,大马糖厂末季净利低于我们和市场的预测,落差分别为25%和39%。

由于新炼糖厂延迟营运的额外开销,加上政府批准高达80万至100万之间的白糖进口影响,末季和全年的本地白糖销售额,分别按年下滑11%与7%。

同时,白糖平均售价也分别按年下滑17%和13%,反映了原糖成本下降。

大马糖厂末季的扣除利息、税务、折旧与摊销前赚幅,按年下跌至4%,因为销售额较低和营运成本较高。

政府从去年9月调低白糖顶价至每公斤2.85令吉,我们认为将造成该公司每年营业额减少4750万令吉。

我们下调盈利预测和目标价至2.23令吉,相等于股价对账面价值(P/BV)0.8倍,并维持“减持”评级。

Jenny Loo
Member Star
Posts: 15
Joined: Dec 2018
Female, MYS
22 Feb 2019, 11:34 AMPost #3
  • FY18 core earnings of RM35.1m came in below ours and consensus expectations
  • The lower-than-expected earnings was attributed to lower ASP and reduced domestic and export sales
  • Unfavourable government policies have threatened the status quo of the group
  • Nonetheless, FY18 earnings returned to black compared to the same period last year due to lower raw material costs
  • Maintain NEUTRAL with lower TP of RM2.19
Jenny Loo
Member Star
Posts: 15
Joined: Dec 2018
Female, MYS
22 Feb 2019, 11:34 AMPost #4

FY18 earnings came in below expectation. MSM Malaysia Holdings Berhad’s (MSM) FY18 core earnings of RM35.1m came in below expectations. This translated into 59% and 60% of ours and consensus earnings forecast respectively. The poorer-than-expected results was mainly exacerbated by the first quarterly losses experienced in 4QFY18 results of RM-10.4m (-212.0%yoy) since June 2017 as the group incurred a loss at -RM10.5m in its Johor operations and higher finance cost. In addition, MSM was also grappled with the lower average selling price in FY18.

Jenny Loo
Member Star
Posts: 15
Joined: Dec 2018
Female, MYS
22 Feb 2019, 11:34 AMPost #5

Sales volume and revenue dwindled. On a year-on-year basis, FY18’s sales volume declined by -5.0%yoy to 947,848mt. This was predominantly due to the fall in the domestic and export segment sales volume by -7.4%yoy and -21.4%yoy to 440,000mt and 398,000mt respectively. Coupled with a lower average selling price as increased domestic competition seen in FY18, total sales revenue has decreased by -17.2%yoy to RM2,145m. We view that the domestic competition and lower exports was in view of: (i) cheaper smuggled refined Thai sugar as substitute (ii) temporary approved permits (AP) to import refined sugar were awarded to meet shortage in FY18 and, (iii) oversupply of sugar globally which weigh on price.

Jenny Loo
Member Star
Posts: 15
Joined: Dec 2018
Female, MYS
22 Feb 2019, 11:35 AMPost #6

Profit margin improved. MSM’s FY18 gross profit margin and net profit margin have both improved by +213%yoy and +220%yoy to 8.49% and 1.63% respectively. This was premised on the cost of sales contracted at a faster pace at +21.1%yoy than the drop in revenue of - 16.0%yoy. This was due to the deterioration of the price of raw sugar amid oversupply conditions, coupled with stronger ringgit against USD making the cost of production considerably low. However, on a quarterly basis, 4QFY18 swung into red with earnings slid by - 212.0%yoy. 4QFY18 revenue declining at a faster pace than a drop in cost of sales as the price of raw sugar on a recovery mode amid optimism that supply might get tighten in FY19.

Jenny Loo
Member Star
Posts: 15
Joined: Dec 2018
Female, MYS
22 Feb 2019, 11:35 AMPost #7

Unfavourable government policies. Under the Pakatan Harapan (PH) Government, food and beverages (F&B) manufacturers in Malaysia can apply for sugar import permits. Recently, a Sarawak manufacturer received first AP to import sugar directly from other countries and a few other applications are being assessed by the Government. This AP would act a battering ram to new avenue in purchasing refined sugar directly from markets that potentially offer cheaper rate and MSM might probably lose out market share. On another note, during Budget 2019, an excise duty of 40 sen per litre on sweetened beverages will be implemented from 1 April 2019. This would potentially lessen the demand for sugar domestically. Meanwhile, we expect the average selling price for sugar to be lower as the Government set the ceiling price for granulated sugar and refined granulated sugar to be reduced by 10 sen per kg effective September 1 to RM2.85 per kg and RM2.95 per kg respectively. We opine that all these government interventions might be a drag to MSM’s sales revenue and volume.

Jenny Loo
Member Star
Posts: 15
Joined: Dec 2018
Female, MYS
22 Feb 2019, 11:35 AMPost #8

Earnings estimate reduced for FY19. FY19 core earnings has been cut by -50.0% to RM50.5m in regard to the current tightening domestic competition and government intervention amid a downtrend of the demand growth for sugar. We have lowered our assumption of sales volume and average selling price (ASP) for each segment.

Jenny Loo
Member Star
Posts: 15
Joined: Dec 2018
Female, MYS
22 Feb 2019, 11:35 AMPost #9

Target Price. Subsequent to our earnings adjustment, we lower our target price to RM2.19 (previously RM3.03). Valuation is based on unchanged Forward PE of 21x to FY20 EPS forecast. The 21x forward PE valuation is based on a 2-year historical average.

Jenny Loo
Member Star
Posts: 15
Joined: Dec 2018
Female, MYS
22 Feb 2019, 11:35 AMPost #10

Maintain NEUTRAL. For FY19, we view that MSM would be facing some headwinds especially from the domestic market as policies emerge are not in the favour of the company where domestic segment accounted for 52% of the company’s sales revenue. The new sugar refinery in Johor Bahru might provide MSM economies of scale and ramp up production, however, the current demand condition is not that promising. On the flip side, production seem to began tapering in sugar-producing countries such as Brazil, EU and Thailand which will probably give rise to a deficit in 2H19. While this might provide an export opportunity for MSM to expand its businesses, the downside would be the increase in cost of sales (as raw sugar price increases) and lower ceiling price in the local market. All in, we are maintaining our NEUTRAL recommendation on the stock.

scotthong
Member Star
Posts: 29
Joined: Jan 2017
Male, MYS
20 May 2019, 12:46 AMPost #11

MSM (5202) - Technical & Fundamental Analysis

May 20, 2019 | HONG WEI GIET

Technical Analysis

===========

- There is no significant technical signal for reference.

- MSM shares price has been fall without resistance in the past 2 years.

- Reduce in shares price due to changing of the business fundamental.

- Don't try to hold a falling knife!! KIV.

Fundament more: https://www.fundamental-technical-analysis.com/


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