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Nicholas86 Member Star
Total Cumulative Posts 13
Joined Dec 2018
Country MALAYSIA
Gender Male


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Corporate

STOCK: PBBANK (1295)

Blog 22 Feb 2019, 11:27:16 AM

Fine-tune PPB’s FY18-19E CNPs by 0.5-0.1% to RM948m-1.20b due to housekeeping reasons.

Corporate

STOCK: PBBANK (1295)

Blog 22 Feb 2019, 11:27:07 AM

Earnings to soften further sequentially. Moving into 1Q19, despite the recovery in CPO prices, we believe Wilmar’s earnings would soften further on a sequential basis as soybean crush margins continue to be affected by muted meal demand again due to the African swine fever. In addition, its Sugar segment is likely to register losses as we enter low crushing season.

Corporate

STOCK: ELKDESA (5228)

Blog 22 Feb 2019, 11:26:13 AM

Maintain BUY based on a CY19 Price Target of RM1.70, which is pegged to a 13x P/E multiple on our CY19E EPS of 13 sen. We remain upbeat on ELK-Desa as: i) a furtherexpansion of leverage will drive upside in EPS and minimize dilution effects from the last two rights issue; ii) dividend yields remain attractive at 5.2%-8.1%. Downside risks – high cost-of-living may cause higher defaults.

Corporate

STOCK: ELKDESA (5228)

Blog 22 Feb 2019, 11:26:06 AM

The shift in management’s strategy was observed in its stance to leverage up in 3QFY19, whereby total borrowings have been increased by 126% to RM100.2m (from RM44.4m in Dec17). Even so, gearing ratio remains at a low of 0.25x (vs. other similar peers such as Aeon Credit at 4x).

Corporate

STOCK: ELKDESA (5228)

Blog 22 Feb 2019, 11:25:56 AM

ELK-Desa reported a 9MFY19 net profit of RM24.4m, up +35.5% yoy, while EPS rose by 17.6% yoy, underpinned primarily by profits from its hire-purchase division (98% of PBT). Receivables growth remained robust in 3QFY19, rising by 23% yoy driven by higher transactions in the used car market, following management’s move to further expand its scope of financing for cars priced at below RM35,000 (from its previous policy for cars < RM20,000). Overall, ELK’s results appear broadly within our expectations for FY19E, as we anticipate a stronger performance in 4QFY19 following management’s move to leverage up on its borrowings (block-discounting).

Corporate

STOCK: ELKDESA (5228)

Blog 22 Feb 2019, 11:25:44 AM

ELK-Desa’s 9MFY19 net profit of RM24.4m (+35.5% yoy; EPS +17.6% yoy) was broadly within our expectations, driven by stronger profit contribution from its hire-purchase financing (which contributed 98% of pre-tax profit). HP receivables grew by 23% yoy partially fuelled by increased leverage within the group through block discounting. The furniture segment (though insignificant in contribution to pre-tax profit), continued to turnaround following management’s move to focus on the domestic markets. Our investment outlook on ELK-Desa has not changed from our last report, we remain upbeat on management’s vertical expansion plan. Maintai BUY, our Price Target of RM1.70 remains unchanged.

Corporate

STOCK: BAHVEST (0098)

Blog 22 Feb 2019, 11:25:06 AM

BAHVEST has formed a breakout-pullback-continuation pattern above the EMA9 level with high volumes. The MACD Histogram has turned green, but the RSI is slightly overbought. Price may advance, targeting the RM0.55-RM0.59 levels. Support will be pegged around the RM0.48 level.

Corporate

STOCK: PHARMA (7081)

Blog 22 Feb 2019, 10:21:07 AM

Results’ highlights. QoQ, 4Q18 Core PATAMI fell 72%, excluding the provision for, and write-back and write-off of: (i) receivables (RM6.1m) and (ii) inventories (RM6.6m), respectively, in 4QFY18 and provision for write-off of: (i) receivables (RM1.4m) and (ii) inventories (RM2.2m) in 3QFY18; dragged down by losses at the Logistics and Manufacturing divisions, and exacerbated by a higher effective tax rate of 62% compared to 13% in 3Q18. The Logistics and Distribution Division recorded a pre-tax loss of RM0.4m compared to a pre-tax profit of RM3.7m in 3Q18 due to higher operating expenses, including selling and distribution. Similarly, the manufacturing division’s pre-tax profit fell 29% to RM11m.

YoY, FY18 revenue rose 3% due to increased orders from concession business and government hospitals. Correspondingly, FY18 core PATAMI rose 3.6%, excluding the provision for writeback and write-off of: (i) receivables (RM2.1m) and (ii) inventories (RM17.1m) in FY18 and excluding one-off gains from of RM8m as compensation received in relation to a previously owned JV in China and provisions for receivables and inventories (RM9.5m) in FY17; thanks to better performance from the Logistics and Distribution division and more than offset lower contribution from manufacturing. The Logistics and Distribution division’s FY18 PBT rose two-fold to RM12m attributable to stronger contributions from Government and concession businesses notwithstanding the impact from lower operating expenses. The Manufacturing Division posted a lower PBT, by 19%, due to lower orders from the concession business.

Outlook. The stock has been de-rated on concerns of Government reviewing all medical supplies concession agreements of which Pharmaniaga has a 10-year contract ending in November 2019. We are unsure of the renewability of the contract but Pharmaniaga has the track record, platform and systems already in place for the distributions of such medical supplies. Overseas, the Indonesian operation remains a key area of growth, while further progress is being made in the European Union as the Group seeks to expand its global presence. Over the longer term, we expect its manufacturing division to propel earnings growth. The group aims to add about 200 new products over the next 10 years to its existing portfolio of around 500 products.

Downgrade FY19E/FY20E net profit by 18%/22% to take into account the lower-than-expected sales.

Maintain MP. TP is cut from RM2.90 to RM2.50 based on an unchanged 11.5x FY19E EPS (-1.5SD below 5-year historical forward mean). Key downside risk is the uncertainty regarding the renewal of the government concession which is expected to expire in 2019.

Corporate

STOCK: PHARMA (7081)

Blog 22 Feb 2019, 10:20:46 AM

FY18 core PATAMI of RM57.4m (+3.6% YoY) came in below expectations at 84%/89% of our/consensus full-year forecasts. The negative variance from our forecast was due to lower-thanexpected volumes sales. A fourth interim DPS of 2.0 sen was declared, bringing 12M18 DPS to 16.0 sen, below our expectations. As such we cut our FY19E/FY20E DPS to 14.0 sen from 19.0 sen.

Corporate

STOCK: PHARMA (7081)

Blog 22 Feb 2019, 10:20:25 AM

FY18 core PATAMI of RM57.4m (+3.6% YoY) came in below expectations at 84%/89% of our/consensus full-year forecasts. The negative variance from our forecast was due to lower-than-expected volumes sales, which prompted us downgrade our FY19E/FY20E forecasts by 18%/22%. TP is cut from RM2.90 to RM2.50 based on an unchanged 11.5x FY19E EPS (-1.5SD below 5-year historical forward mean). Reiterate MP



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